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MLS fixtures sim 2026-09-03 (autopilot)

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-09-03

Who wins each match

DateStageMatchHomeDrawAway3+ goalsBTTS
9/4/2026regularNew York City FC v Nashville SC
41.6%
27.9%
30.5%
45%51%
9/5/2026regularOrlando City SC v San Diego
38.1%
22.8%
39.1%
69%69%
9/5/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v CF Montreal
62.7%
21.0%
16.4%
59%55%
9/5/2026regularToronto FC v Chicago Fire
36.0%
25.8%
38.2%
55%59%
9/5/2026regularColumbus Crew v Colorado Rapids
56.5%
22.5%
21.1%
60%59%
9/5/2026regularFC Cincinnati v DC United
64.7%
18.7%
16.6%
70%64%
9/5/2026regularInter Miami v Atlanta United FC
71.8%
15.5%
12.6%
77%65%
9/5/2026regularCharlotte v Houston Dynamo
46.5%
26.8%
26.7%
48%52%
9/6/2026regularSeattle Sounders v New York Red Bulls
53.2%
24.7%
22.2%
52%53%
9/6/2026regularFC Dallas v Sporting Kansas City
66.1%
18.7%
15.2%
68%61%
9/6/2026regularAustin v San Jose Earthquakes
39.4%
24.5%
36.1%
61%63%
9/6/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v New England Revolution
49.3%
23.6%
27.0%
61%62%
9/6/2026regularReal Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC
31.2%
26.1%
42.7%
53%57%
9/6/2026regularVancouver Whitecaps v St. Louis City
64.5%
20.0%
15.5%
62%57%
9/6/2026regularPortland Timbers v Minnesota United FC
44.4%
25.0%
30.5%
57%60%
9/9/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v FC Cincinnati
50.3%
22.5%
27.2%
66%66%
9/9/2026regularToronto FC v Nashville SC
28.6%
28.1%
43.2%
44%49%
9/9/2026regularNew York City FC v New England Revolution
53.7%
24.6%
21.7%
52%53%
9/9/2026regularAtlanta United FC v Orlando City SC
39.1%
24.0%
36.8%
63%65%
9/9/2026regularCF Montreal v Charlotte
33.2%
26.6%
40.2%
51%55%
9/9/2026regularDC United v Columbus Crew
29.5%
24.6%
45.9%
58%61%
9/10/2026regularHouston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake
43.9%
26.7%
29.4%
49%54%
9/10/2026regularChicago Fire v Inter Miami
37.1%
21.0%
41.9%
77%76%
9/10/2026regularMinnesota United FC v FC Dallas
44.9%
25.8%
29.3%
53%56%
9/10/2026regularAustin v Colorado Rapids
41.6%
26.1%
32.3%
53%57%
9/10/2026regularVancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles Galaxy
64.5%
19.3%
16.2%
66%60%
9/10/2026regularLos Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls
65.4%
20.0%
14.7%
61%55%
9/10/2026regularPortland Timbers v St. Louis City
50.7%
23.2%
26.1%
62%62%
9/10/2026regularSan Diego v San Jose Earthquakes
59.2%
20.1%
20.7%
70%67%
9/12/2026regularOrlando City SC v Toronto FC
56.1%
22.5%
21.4%
60%59%
9/12/2026regularColumbus Crew v New York Red Bulls
55.3%
22.7%
22.0%
60%59%
9/12/2026regularDC United v Atlanta United FC
43.0%
25.5%
31.5%
55%58%
9/12/2026regularFC Cincinnati v Charlotte
48.9%
23.5%
27.7%
62%63%
9/12/2026regularInter Miami v Nashville SC
52.7%
21.9%
25.5%
68%66%
9/13/2026regularFC Dallas v Portland Timbers
50.5%
23.2%
26.3%
62%63%
9/13/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Los Angeles FC
18.8%
20.9%
60.2%
64%60%
9/13/2026regularSt. Louis City v Minnesota United FC
40.6%
26.3%
33.1%
52%56%
9/13/2026regularReal Salt Lake v New York City FC
41.3%
26.9%
31.7%
49%54%
9/13/2026regularColorado Rapids v CF Montreal
53.7%
23.6%
22.7%
57%57%
9/13/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo
46.4%
24.4%
29.2%
59%61%
9/13/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v Seattle Sounders
39.2%
25.9%
34.9%
54%58%
9/13/2026regularVancouver Whitecaps v Austin
68.4%
18.9%
12.7%
61%53%
9/13/2026regularChicago Fire v New England Revolution
51.8%
23.0%
25.2%
62%62%
9/14/2026regularSan Diego v Philadelphia Union
51.1%
23.3%
25.6%
61%62%
9/18/2026regularNew York City FC v New York Red Bulls
53.1%
24.4%
22.5%
54%55%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-09-19",
  "from": "2026-09-03",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "MLS fixtures sim 2026-09-03 (autopilot)",
  "as_of": "2026-09-03",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 2
  },
  "competition": "MLS"
}