Sporting Kansas City v Los Angeles FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Los Angeles FC win	58%	60%	1.67	fair
Draw	22%	21%	4.50	fair
Sporting Kansas City win	20%	19%	5.25	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles FC win	1.67	1.65	-1.2%
Draw	4.10	4.35	+6.1%
Sporting Kansas City win	4.35	4.45	+2.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Children's Mercy Park