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Chicago Fire v New England Revolution

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 10:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Chicago Fire win54%52%1.83fair
Draw23%23%4.40fair
New England Revolution win23%25%4.40value: +11%

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
New England Revolution win4.403.80-13.6%
Draw4.104.00-2.4%
Chicago Fire win1.671.78+6.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSoldier Field