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MLS fixtures sim 2026-10-08 (autopilot)

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-10-08

Who wins each match

DateStageMatchHomeDrawAway3+ goalsBTTS
10/10/2026regularToronto FC v CF Montreal
46.2%
26.5%
27.2%
49%53%
10/10/2026regularChicago Fire v New York City FC
42.1%
25.2%
32.7%
57%60%
10/10/2026regularOrlando City SC v Columbus Crew
41.4%
23.3%
35.3%
66%67%
10/10/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v Real Salt Lake
50.0%
24.7%
25.3%
55%57%
10/10/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v San Diego
35.3%
24.4%
40.2%
61%63%
10/10/2026regularAtlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati
34.9%
23.8%
41.3%
64%65%
10/10/2026regularNew England Revolution v Seattle Sounders
36.4%
27.4%
36.2%
48%54%
10/10/2026regularInter Miami v DC United
75.7%
13.8%
10.5%
79%65%
10/10/2026regularCharlotte v FC Dallas
44.3%
25.9%
29.8%
53%57%
10/11/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers
32.9%
23.1%
44.1%
67%67%
10/11/2026regularMinnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo
46.9%
26.7%
26.4%
48%52%
10/11/2026regularAustin v Nashville SC
30.3%
27.4%
42.4%
47%52%
10/11/2026regularColorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes
44.2%
23.6%
32.2%
64%65%
10/11/2026regularLos Angeles FC v Vancouver Whitecaps
48.2%
24.7%
27.1%
56%58%
10/11/2026regularSt. Louis City v Los Angeles Galaxy
45.8%
23.9%
30.3%
62%63%
10/14/2026regularToronto FC v Orlando City SC
37.5%
25.2%
37.3%
58%61%
10/14/2026regularColumbus Crew v Charlotte
49.7%
24.8%
25.5%
55%57%
10/14/2026regularCF Montreal v Atlanta United FC
43.6%
25.8%
30.6%
54%57%
10/14/2026regularDC United v New York Red Bulls
37.1%
25.3%
37.6%
57%60%
10/14/2026regularFC Cincinnati v New England Revolution
55.6%
21.6%
22.8%
66%64%
10/14/2026regularInter Miami v New York City FC
56.2%
20.9%
22.9%
69%67%
10/15/2026regularFC Dallas v Seattle Sounders
43.2%
26.6%
30.2%
50%55%
10/15/2026regularChicago Fire v Philadelphia Union
42.8%
24.1%
33.1%
62%64%
10/15/2026regularNashville SC v Sporting Kansas City
68.7%
18.5%
12.8%
63%54%
10/15/2026regularSt. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps
29.6%
24.7%
45.7%
58%60%
10/15/2026regularReal Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes
49.2%
23.3%
27.5%
63%63%
10/15/2026regularColorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC
39.6%
26.4%
34.0%
52%56%
10/15/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers
46.5%
23.0%
30.5%
66%67%
10/15/2026regularLos Angeles FC v Austin
69.3%
18.8%
11.9%
59%51%
10/15/2026regularSan Diego v Houston Dynamo
55.3%
23.2%
21.5%
57%57%
10/17/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v Charlotte
48.9%
25.3%
25.8%
53%55%
10/17/2026regularMinnesota United FC v St. Louis City
50.9%
24.8%
24.3%
54%56%
10/17/2026regularOrlando City SC v DC United
60.5%
20.2%
19.3%
68%64%
10/17/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v Toronto FC
52.1%
25.0%
22.9%
52%54%
10/17/2026regularAtlanta United FC v Inter Miami
26.7%
21.2%
52.1%
72%70%
10/17/2026regularNew England Revolution v Chicago Fire
42.5%
24.3%
33.1%
61%63%
10/18/2026regularHouston Dynamo v FC Dallas
42.2%
26.4%
31.4%
52%56%
10/18/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
31.4%
24.4%
44.2%
60%62%
10/18/2026regularAustin v Vancouver Whitecaps
25.1%
24.6%
50.2%
55%57%
10/18/2026regularSeattle Sounders v CF Montreal
60.8%
22.6%
16.6%
53%51%
10/18/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC
38.2%
25.2%
36.7%
58%61%
10/18/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v San Diego
37.0%
23.5%
39.5%
65%67%
10/18/2026regularPortland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
51.3%
23.1%
25.5%
62%62%
10/18/2026regularFC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew
45.8%
22.8%
31.3%
67%68%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-10-24",
  "from": "2026-10-08",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "MLS fixtures sim 2026-10-08 (autopilot)",
  "as_of": "2026-10-08",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 2
  },
  "competition": "MLS"
}