Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Oct 15, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Philadelphia Union win	38%	33%	2.66	fair
Chicago Fire win	37%	43%	2.60	value: +11%
Draw	24%	24%	4.10	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Union win	2.30	2.58	+12.2%
Draw	3.98	3.77	-5.2%
Chicago Fire win	2.60	2.43	-6.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Soldier Field