Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Minnesota United FC win	45%	47%	2.15	fair
Houston Dynamo win	29%	26%	3.55	fair
Draw	26%	27%	3.70	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	57%	48%	1.67	fair
Under	43%	52%	2.16	value: +13%

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Houston Dynamo win	3.30	3.30	0.0%
Draw	3.67	3.60	-2.0%
Minnesota United FC win	2.02	2.05	+1.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Allianz Field