CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Oct 14, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
CF Montreal win	43%	44%	2.35	fair
Atlanta United FC win	32%	31%	3.10	fair
Draw	25%	26%	3.81	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	59%	54%	1.56	fair
Under	41%	46%	2.30	value: +7%

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Atlanta United FC win	3.10	2.80	-9.7%
Draw	3.73	3.70	-0.7%
CF Montreal win	2.10	2.32	+10.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Saputo Stadium