Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Oct 15, 01:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Colorado Rapids win	45%	40%	2.17	fair
Minnesota United FC win	29%	34%	3.40	value: +16%
Draw	26%	26%	3.90	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	59%	52%	1.59	fair
Under	41%	48%	2.30	value: +10%

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Minnesota United FC win	3.35	3.20	-4.5%
Draw	3.65	3.60	-1.4%
Colorado Rapids win	2.00	2.10	+5.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Dick's Sporting Goods Park