wc2026-fullodds

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2026 · markets 1x2

36

bets placed · hit rate 30.6%

$-107.74

P&L · ROI -15.3% on $702 staked

-0.09%

CLV · avg edge vs closing line

0.2817 / 0.1705

Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

Calibration table

Bin	n	Predicted	Actual
0.0-0.1	28	2.8%	35.7%
0.1-0.2	13	14.8%	7.7%
0.2-0.3	6	23.9%	16.7%
0.3-0.4	8	34.3%	25.0%
0.4-0.5	8	46.3%	62.5%
0.5-0.6	4	54.3%	50.0%
0.6-0.7	4	66.9%	50.0%
0.7-0.8	5	75.8%	60.0%
0.8-0.9	8	85.9%	25.0%
0.9-1.0	3	96.5%	33.3%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

Match	Market	Pick	Model %	Market %	Stake	P&L
Argentina v Cape Verde Islands	Match result	Draw	26.7%	11.0%	$20.00	+150.60
Belgium v Senegal	Match result	Draw	41.8%	29.0%	$20.00	+47.40
England v Argentina	Match result	Argentina win	65.8%	31.3%	$20.00	+42.20
Australia v Egypt	Match result	Draw	48.6%	33.4%	$20.00	+37.80
Mexico v Ecuador	Match result	Mexico win	51.4%	42.7%	$20.00	+25.80
Switzerland v Algeria	Match result	Switzerland win	88.0%	48.4%	$20.00	+20.40
Argentina v Switzerland	Match result	Argentina win	90.4%	56.0%	$20.00	-20.00
France v Spain	Match result	Draw	67.6%	32.2%	$20.00	-20.00
Colombia v Ghana	Match result	Draw	81.5%	22.2%	$20.00	-20.00
England v Congo DR	Match result