← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Wed, Jul 1, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Adham Mohammad, Jordan
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| England win | 73% | 52% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 29% | 5.60 | value: +62% |
| Congo DR win | 8% | 19% | 15.00 | value: +183% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 48% | 2.12 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| No | 66% | 48% | 1.50 | fair |
| Yes | 34% | 52% | 2.88 | value: +49% ⚠ |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |