← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Wed, Jul 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Said Martinez, Honduras · after extra time
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Belgium win | 45% | 50% | 2.21 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Senegal win | 26% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 61% | 2.01 | value: +22% |
| Under | 49% | 39% | 2.04 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 56% | 63% | 1.70 | value: +7% |
| No | 44% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.23 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 6 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 2 |
| final home goals | 3 |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | Lumen Field |