← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Wed, Jul 1, 02:00 AM UTC · ref: S. Vincic
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Mexico win | 43% | 58% | 2.30 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Ecuador win | 24% | 12% | 4.20 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 68% | 65% | 1.42 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 35% | 3.11 | value: +10% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| No | 60% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Yes | 40% | 37% | 2.43 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 7.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under 7.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | Estadio Banorte |