← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Tue, Jun 30, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: W. Sampaio · after extra time · pens 2–3
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Netherlands win | 41% | 53% | 2.49 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Morocco win | 29% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 33% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 67% | 2.30 | value: +55% ⚠ |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 51% | 67% | 1.91 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| No | 49% | 33% | 2.05 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 8.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under 8.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 6 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 4 |
| final home goals | 3 |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | Estadio BBVA |