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BL2-deephistory-rederive

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 · markets 1x2

2092
bets placed · hit rate 32.4%
$-1331.28
P&L · ROI -4.5% on $29279 staked
-0.38%
CLV · avg edge vs closing line
0.2173 / 0.2115
Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%perfectbin 0.0-0.1 · n=43 · predicted 7.5% · actual 11.6%bin 0.1-0.2 · n=408 · predicted 16.4% · actual 23.5%bin 0.2-0.3 · n=1794 · predicted 25.9% · actual 28.5%bin 0.3-0.4 · n=1199 · predicted 34.1% · actual 33.0%bin 0.4-0.5 · n=614 · predicted 44.8% · actual 42.3%bin 0.5-0.6 · n=359 · predicted 54.6% · actual 44.0%bin 0.6-0.7 · n=131 · predicted 64.0% · actual 60.3%bin 0.7-0.8 · n=39 · predicted 73.2% · actual 53.8%bin 0.8-0.9 · n=3 · predicted 82.5% · actual 100.0%predicted probabilityobserved frequency

Calibration table

BinnPredictedActual
0.0-0.1437.5%11.6%
0.1-0.240816.4%23.5%
0.2-0.31,79425.9%28.5%
0.3-0.41,19934.1%33.0%
0.4-0.561444.8%42.3%
0.5-0.635954.6%44.0%
0.6-0.713164.0%60.3%
0.7-0.83973.2%53.8%
0.8-0.9382.5%100.0%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

MatchMarketPickModel %Market %StakeP&L
Ingolstadt v SV SandhausenMatch resultSV Sandhausen win14.8%11.1%$18.97+223.66
Kaiserslautern v AalenMatch resultAalen win16.5%10.7%$20.00+205.80
RB Leipzig v SV SandhausenMatch resultSV Sandhausen win15.1%8.0%$18.21+197.58
Kaiserslautern v Fortuna DusseldorfMatch resultFortuna Dusseldorf win17.3%10.4%$16.52+127.53
Kaiserslautern v AalenMatch resultAalen win22.4%14.4%$20.00+112.00
Nurnberg v Frankfurt FSVMatch resultFrankfurt FSV win39.6%21.6%$20.00+98.60
SC Paderborn 07 v Fortuna DusseldorfMatch resultFortuna Dusseldorf win29.9%19.3%$20.00+95.60
FC St. Pauli 1910 v Frankfurt FSVMatch resultFrankfurt FSV win25.1%15.0%$20.00+93.40
RB Leipzig v BielefeldMatch resultDraw27.0%17.6%$20.00+91.80
RB Leipzig v KaiserslauternMatch resultKaiserslautern win25.9%17.4%$20.00+87.40
1. FC Union Berlin v AalenMatch resultAalen win26.5%19.7%$20.00+86.00
Hertha v Preußen MünsterMatch resultPreußen Münster win23.0%18.2%$16.44+77.10
Frankfurt FSV v KaiserslauternMatch resultFrankfurt FSV win28.6%17.5%$20.00+76.40
Fortuna Dusseldorf v SV SandhausenMatch resultSV Sandhausen win26.9%19.2%$19.56+75.11
Ingolstadt v Erzgebirge AUEMatch resultDraw29.4%21.4%$20.00+70.00