← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 54% | 33% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.94 | value: +9% |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 22% | 40% | 4.53 | value: +79% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 53.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1528.96 | 1436.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.38 | 13.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |