← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 57% | 41% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 34% | 3.81 | value: +28% |
| Kaiserslautern win | 17% | 26% | 5.62 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1566.05 | 1498.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.55 | -23.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |