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Hertha 1–2 Preußen Münster

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Dec 13, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Erbst

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win57%1.67
Draw24%4.10
Preußen Münster win19%5.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha −0.7553%1.84
Preußen Münster −0.7547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
27'🟨Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster
28'⚽ (pen)Derry Scherhant · Hertha
48'🟨Yassine Bouchama · Preußen Münster
51'🟨Michaël Cuisance · Hertha
57'⚽Daniel Kyerewaa · Preußen Münster
60'🟨Diego Demme · Hertha
87'⚽Torge Paetow · Preußen Münster
90'🟨Mikkel Kirkeskov · Preußen Münster

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots12
4On target3
9Corners2
16Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaPreußen Münster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.700.52
cards avg (last 5)2.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion Berlin
coach days195.001808.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.15—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.007.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.851.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.06
dominance (last 5)0.490.41
elo1466.481443.55
elo momentum (last 5)-18.85-3.29
eye test v10.60-0.54
eye trend v1-0.59-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)48.8053.20
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.57
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.10—
keeper form v10.550.69
league points21.0013.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.001.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2040.20
rest days6.235.92
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.310.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.60
skill v10.59-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.00
squad age25.08—
state index-0.47-0.47
sterile dominance v10.12-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20