← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Fri, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 52% | 44% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.46 | fair |
| Aalen win | 20% | 27% | 4.95 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2373.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1504.09 | 1465.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.37 | -6.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.27 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |