← 2. Bundesliga 2012-13 · Fri, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 62% | 44% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 34% | 4.09 | value: +39% |
| Aalen win | 14% | 22% | 6.78 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 166.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1553.01 | 1492.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.55 | -13.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.39 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |