← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Mon, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 69% | 57% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.84 | value: +22% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 10% | 17% | 9.32 | value: +61% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 99.00 | 12488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1588.43 | 1462.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.88 | -68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.90 | -1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |