← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Blade Tidwell (ERA 3, WHIP 1.08) · home: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.77, WHIP 1.26)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 | Portfolio | $10.70 | 2.71 | $18.30 | +8% | -10.70 | lost |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.25 lost leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 20.43 | $38.87 | +43% | -2.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.71 | $17.10 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.71 | $17.10 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.71 | $17.10 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.71 | $17.10 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 60% | 1.70 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 40% | 2.71 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.19 | 2.53 | +15.7% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.67 | 1.55 | -7.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Texas Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1485.79 | 1483.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.23 | 1.42 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.10 |