← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zack Littell (ERA 4.94, WHIP 1.34) · home: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.57, WHIP 1.19)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.25 | Portfolio | $7.12 | 3.25 | $16.02 | +7% | -7.12 | lost |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.25 lost leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 20.43 | $38.87 | +43% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.25 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 3.25 | $22.50 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.25 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.25 | $22.50 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.33 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 66% | 1.52 |
| Washington Nationals win | 34% | 3.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.59 | 3.08 | +18.9% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.44 | 1.40 | -2.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1540.29 | 1464.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.37 | -11.53 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |