← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Emerson Hancock (ERA 3.26, WHIP 1.04)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.25 lost leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 20.43 | $38.87 | +43% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.32 | $13.20 | +6% | +13.20 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.32 | $13.20 | +6% | +13.20 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 53% | 1.93 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 47% | 2.32 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.93 | 2.19 | +13.2% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.93 | 1.70 | -11.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1504.97 | 1513.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.76 | 16.16 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.20 |