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MLS fixtures sim 2026-09-25 (autopilot)

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-09-25

Who wins each match

DateStageMatchHomeDrawAway3+ goalsBTTS
9/26/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v Orlando City SC
54.3%
21.9%
23.9%
66%65%
9/26/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v St. Louis City
46.9%
24.6%
28.5%
58%60%
9/26/2026regularAtlanta United FC v New York City FC
32.2%
26.9%
40.9%
49%54%
9/26/2026regularCF Montreal v FC Cincinnati
32.8%
23.5%
43.7%
65%66%
9/26/2026regularCharlotte v Chicago Fire
47.8%
24.3%
27.9%
59%60%
9/27/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Minnesota United FC
47.3%
26.9%
25.8%
47%51%
9/27/2026regularFC Dallas v Los Angeles FC
33.3%
25.7%
41.0%
55%58%
9/27/2026regularHouston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City
61.1%
21.2%
17.7%
61%57%
9/27/2026regularNashville SC v Toronto FC
60.3%
23.6%
16.1%
48%47%
9/27/2026regularAustin v San Diego
30.0%
24.8%
45.2%
58%60%
9/27/2026regularReal Salt Lake v New England Revolution
50.5%
24.7%
24.7%
54%56%
9/27/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers
47.9%
22.3%
29.8%
69%68%
9/27/2026regularVancouver Whitecaps v DC United
73.1%
16.4%
10.5%
66%54%
9/27/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v Colorado Rapids
49.9%
23.3%
26.8%
62%63%
9/27/2026regularColumbus Crew v Inter Miami
42.2%
21.8%
36.0%
74%73%
10/2/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Sporting Kansas City
66.2%
19.5%
14.2%
61%55%
10/10/2026regularToronto FC v CF Montreal
46.4%
26.5%
27.1%
49%53%
10/10/2026regularChicago Fire v New York City FC
42.2%
25.2%
32.6%
57%60%
10/10/2026regularOrlando City SC v Columbus Crew
41.5%
23.3%
35.2%
66%67%
10/10/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v Real Salt Lake
50.2%
24.6%
25.2%
55%57%
10/10/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v San Diego
35.4%
24.5%
40.1%
61%63%
10/10/2026regularAtlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati
35.0%
23.8%
41.2%
64%65%
10/10/2026regularNew England Revolution v Seattle Sounders
36.4%
27.3%
36.2%
48%54%
10/10/2026regularInter Miami v DC United
75.7%
13.8%
10.5%
79%65%
10/10/2026regularCharlotte v FC Dallas
44.4%
25.9%
29.7%
53%56%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-10-11",
  "from": "2026-09-25",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "MLS fixtures sim 2026-09-25 (autopilot)",
  "as_of": "2026-09-25",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 2
  },
  "competition": "MLS"
}