Oakland Athletics 6–5 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 02:05 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Portfolio	$6.45	2.89	$12.19	+7%	+12.19	won
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 3: St. Louis Cardinals win in San Francisco Giants v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	15.88	$29.75	+32%	-2.00	lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Steam confusion	$10.00	2.89	$18.90	+15%	+18.90	won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.89	$18.90	+15%	+18.90	won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	+2%	+15.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Toronto Blue Jays win	62%	1.87
Oakland Athletics win	38%	2.89

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.48	1.79	+21.3%
Oakland Athletics win		2.43	2.01	-17.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	5
Oakland Athletics	2	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Oakland Athletics	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1417.15	1522.52
elo momentum (last 5)	15.79	11.66
matches since win	1.00	1.00
rest days	1.25	1.33
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	3.70
runs for avg (last 10)	4.60	5.30