← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Logan Webb (ERA 4.21, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 3: St. Louis Cardinals win in San Francisco Giants v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 15.88 | $29.75 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in San Francisco Giants v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 54% | 1.86 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 46% | 4.73 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.86 | 4.73 | +154.5% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.83 | 1.22 | -33.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1463.14 | 1495.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.65 | 2.37 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.40 |