Philadelphia Phillies 1–0 Atlanta Braves

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 7, 05:05 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Bryce Elder (ERA 4.11, WHIP 1.27) · home: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.02, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 3: St. Louis Cardinals win in San Francisco Giants v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	15.88	$29.75	+32%	-2.00	lost
Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.52	$15.20	+8%	-10.00	lost
Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	-0%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	59%	1.65
Atlanta Braves win	41%	2.52

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Atlanta Braves win		2.29	2.40	+4.9%
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.52	1.60	+4.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	—	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1557.70	1547.69
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.62	3.86
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	2.20	3.30
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	4.10