Los Angeles Dodgers 3–2 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 02:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Quinn Mathews (ERA 5.03, WHIP 1.58) · home: Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.84, WHIP 0.94)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.60	Portfolio	$5.48	3.60	$14.25	+8%	-5.48	lost
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.60 lost leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.02 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	17.03	$32.07	+39%	-2.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.60	Steam confusion	$10.00	3.60	$26.00	+17%	-10.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40	Elo value MLB	$10.00	3.40	$24.00	+13%	-10.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40	MLB dog variance	$10.00	3.40	$24.00	+13%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	65%	2.60
St. Louis Cardinals win	35%	3.60

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
St. Louis Cardinals win		3.23	1.71	-47.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.35	2.14	+58.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
St. Louis Cardinals	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Dodgers	St. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1569.80	1496.90
elo momentum (last 5)	-6.30	6.12
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.90	7.00
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	5.30