← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 3, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Luis Castillo (ERA 5.31, WHIP 1.44) · home: Hunter Brown (ERA 3.33, WHIP 1.3)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.60 lost leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.02 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 17.03 | $32.07 | +39% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 41% | 15.64 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 2.24 | 2.34 | +4.7% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.62 | 1.62 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1504.43 | 1504.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.98 | -3.86 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |