← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 3, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: José Soriano (ERA 3.45, WHIP 1.28) · home: Tanner Bibee (ERA 3.88, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.60 lost leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.02 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 17.03 | $32.07 | +39% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.02 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.02 | $10.20 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 51% | 7.85 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 49% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.93 | 1.92 | -0.6% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.73 | 1.93 | +11.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1502.89 | 1516.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.83 | 11.53 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |