Arizona Diamondbacks 9–0 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 01:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Gabriel Hughes (ERA 4.25, WHIP 1.18) · home: Michael Soroka (ERA 3.07, WHIP 1.09)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Los Angeles Angels v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87 won leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	5.98	$9.97	+27%	+9.97	won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.60	$6.00	+16%	+6.00	won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Drought fade	$10.00	1.57	$5.71	+15%	+5.71	won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.57	$5.71	+15%	+5.71	won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Portfolio	$25.54	1.57	$14.59	+5%	+14.59	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Arizona Diamondbacks win	62%	1.60
Colorado Rockies win	38%	10.45

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.40	10.45	+335.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks win		1.57	1.07	-31.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arizona Diamondbacks	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	—	9

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	20.00	16.00
elo	1522.33	1386.11
elo momentum (last 5)	3.06	-4.22
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.23	1.31
runs against avg (last 10)	4.00	5.30
runs for avg (last 10)	4.50	5.40