← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 10, 11:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Painter (ERA 6.48, WHIP 1.57) · home: Hunter Dobbins (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.3)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Los Angeles Angels v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87 won leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.98 | $9.97 | +27% | +9.97 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +4% | +10.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 52% | 2.00 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 48% | 9.41 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.90 | 1.10 | -41.8% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.93 | 9.41 | +386.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1486.81 | 1535.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.04 | -7.45 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |