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Los Angeles Angels 1–4 Texas Rangers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 01:38 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.55, WHIP 1.24) · home: Reid Detmers (ERA 4.12, WHIP 1.1)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won
leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Los Angeles Angels v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87 won
leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 won
Chaos parlay$2.005.98$9.97+27%+9.97won
Texas Rangers win in Los Angeles Angels v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87
Elo value MLB$10.001.87$8.70+5%+8.70won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Texas Rangers win53%2.59
Los Angeles Angels win47%3.52

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Texas Rangers win1.731.69-2.7%
Los Angeles Angels win2.012.10+4.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

12345678910Total
Texas Rangers00010000034
Los Angeles Angels10000000001

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
congestion 21d18.0018.00
elo1413.971492.14
elo momentum (last 5)-1.836.34
matches since win2.001.00
rest days1.331.29
runs against avg (last 10)4.704.70
runs for avg (last 10)2.403.50