St. Louis Cardinals 7–4 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 06:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Michael Lorenzen (ERA 6.94, WHIP 1.85) · home: Michael McGreevy (ERA 3.59, WHIP 1.2)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 lost leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	10.32	$18.63	+28%	-2.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62	Drought fade	$10.00	1.62	$6.20	+12%	+6.20	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.65	$6.48	+13%	+6.48	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.65	$6.48	+13%	+6.48	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65	Portfolio	$18.09	1.65	$11.72	+5%	+11.72	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
St. Louis Cardinals win	60%	1.70
Colorado Rockies win	40%	8.56

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.24	2.40	+7.3%
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.57	1.61	+2.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	4
St. Louis Cardinals	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	3	—	7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	20.00	17.00
elo	1484.57	1388.34
elo momentum (last 5)	4.35	-4.77
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.79	0.79
runs against avg (last 10)	3.50	5.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.70	5.70