← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Grant Holmes (ERA 3.67, WHIP 1.34) · home: Cam Schlittler (ERA 2.26, WHIP 0.95)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 lost leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.32 | $18.63 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +7% | +13.50 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +3% | +12.36 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 56% | 3.66 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 44% | 2.35 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 2.14 | 2.24 | +4.6% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.65 | 1.68 | +1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1551.33 | 1550.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.58 | 4.71 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.90 |