← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shane Bieber (ERA 5.11, WHIP 1.68) · home: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.36, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 lost leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.32 | $18.63 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.71 | $17.10 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 62% | 2.05 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 38% | 2.73 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.46 | 2.66 | +8.1% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.50 | 1.52 | +1.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1533.98 | 1501.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.30 | 3.47 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |