Arizona Diamondbacks 1–2 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 12:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ERA 2.76, WHIP 0.88) · home: Brandon Pfaadt (ERA 3.66, WHIP 1.26)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54	Portfolio	$13.16	2.54	$20.27	+8%	-13.16	lost
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.79	$13.58	+34%	-2.00	lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34	Drought fade	$10.00	2.34	$13.42	+9%	-10.00	lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.34	$13.42	+9%	-10.00	lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.34	$13.42	+9%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	59%	1.71
Arizona Diamondbacks win	41%	2.66

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.65	1.69	+2.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks win		2.19	2.23	+2.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
Arizona Diamondbacks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1521.00	1576.67
elo momentum (last 5)	0.54	-16.47
matches since win	0.00	7.00
rest days	0.94	0.94
runs against avg (last 10)	4.30	5.70
runs for avg (last 10)	5.10	4.10