← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.69, WHIP 1.24) · home: Robert Gasser (ERA 4.48, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.79 | $13.58 | +34% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +13% | +6.21 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +13% | +6.21 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Portfolio | $17.63 | 1.62 | $10.95 | +4% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.69 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 42% | 2.34 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.29 | 2.29 | 0.0% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1573.47 | 1471.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.30 | -1.44 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |