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Milwaukee Brewers 4–3 Minnesota Twins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.69, WHIP 1.24) · home: Robert Gasser (ERA 4.48, WHIP 1.17)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won
leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost
leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won
Chaos parlay$2.007.79$13.58+34%-2.00lost
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
Drought fade$10.001.62$6.21+13%+6.21won
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
Elo value MLB$10.001.62$6.21+13%+6.21won
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
Portfolio$17.631.62$10.95+4%+10.95won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Milwaukee Brewers win58%1.69
Minnesota Twins win42%2.34

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Minnesota Twins win2.292.290.0%
Milwaukee Brewers win1.651.65+0.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Minnesota Twins0300000003
Milwaukee Brewers10020001—4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota Twins
congestion 21d18.0018.00
elo1573.471471.34
elo momentum (last 5)-0.30-1.44
matches since win1.000.00
rest days0.980.98
runs against avg (last 10)4.204.20
runs for avg (last 10)4.203.60