Washington Nationals 8–2 Cincinnati Reds

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 10:45 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Chase Burns (ERA 2.35, WHIP 1.1) · home: Andrew Alvarez (ERA 3.94, WHIP 1.45)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.26	Portfolio	$16.66	2.26	$20.99	+8%	+20.99	won
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.26	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.26	$12.60	+18%	+12.60	won
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.79	$13.58	+34%	-2.00	lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.05	$10.51	+8%	+10.51	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cincinnati Reds win	54%	2.01
Washington Nationals win	46%	2.26

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cincinnati Reds win		1.93	1.70	-11.9%
Washington Nationals win		1.73	2.21	+27.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2
Washington Nationals	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	2	—	8

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Washington Nationals	Cincinnati Reds
congestion 21d	20.00	18.00
elo	1467.21	1481.28
elo momentum (last 5)	0.62	6.09
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	5.30	3.70
runs for avg (last 10)	3.40	4.20