Baltimore Orioles 1–4 Los Angeles Angels

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Johnson (ERA 7.63, WHIP 1.59) · home: Brandon Young (ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.29)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63	Steam confusion	$10.00	1.63	$6.30	+9%	-10.00	lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63	Portfolio	$16.18	1.63	$10.19	+4%	-16.18	lost
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 won leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.64 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	4.49	$6.98	+19%	-2.00	lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.63	$6.30	+9%	-10.00	lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.62	$6.21	+7%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Baltimore Orioles win	61%	1.63
Los Angeles Angels win	39%	2.66

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Angels win		2.52	2.48	-1.9%
Baltimore Orioles win		1.52	1.60	+4.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
Baltimore Orioles	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Baltimore Orioles	Los Angeles Angels
congestion 21d	17.00	17.00
elo	1502.86	1413.47
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.67	-4.06
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	0.75	0.75
runs against avg (last 10)	5.30	4.50
runs for avg (last 10)	3.70	2.50