Cincinnati Reds 6–5 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Mason Barnett (ERA 4.85, WHIP 1.31) · home: Andrew Abbott (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.39)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 won leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.64 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	4.49	$6.98	+19%	-2.00	lost
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.64	Drought fade	$10.00	1.64	$6.40	+4%	+6.40	won
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.64	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.64	$6.40	+4%	+6.40	won
Oakland Athletics win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	-2%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cincinnati Reds win	61%	1.64
Oakland Athletics win	39%	2.66

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Oakland Athletics win		2.59	2.35	-9.4%
Cincinnati Reds win		1.46	1.62	+10.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Oakland Athletics	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	5
Cincinnati Reds	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cincinnati Reds	Oakland Athletics
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1482.71	1417.27
elo momentum (last 5)	5.76	-15.47
matches since win	0.00	7.00
rest days	0.75	0.75
runs against avg (last 10)	3.60	6.70
runs for avg (last 10)	4.30	3.30