← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Janson Junk (ERA 4.58, WHIP 1.33) · home: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.24, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 won leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.64 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 4.49 | $6.98 | +19% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.68 | $6.80 | +5% | +6.80 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +8% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 58% | 1.76 |
| Miami Marlins win | 42% | 23.43 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.09 | 23.43 | +1018.3% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.65 | 1.03 | -37.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | — | 11 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1551.17 | 1490.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.50 | 6.05 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |