Baltimore Orioles 0–8 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 05:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Zack Wheeler (ERA 2.53, WHIP 0.92) · home: Kyle Bradish (ERA 3.74, WHIP 1.36)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22	Portfolio	$14.54	2.22	$17.74	+7%	-14.54	lost
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22 lost leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	11.84	$21.69	+36%	-2.00	lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22	Drought fade	$10.00	2.22	$12.20	+15%	-10.00	lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.22	$12.20	+15%	-10.00	lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.05	$10.51	+5%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	55%	1.79
Baltimore Orioles win	45%	3.52

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.76	1.73	-1.7%
Baltimore Orioles win		1.93	2.15	+11.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	2	2	1	3	8
Baltimore Orioles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Baltimore Orioles	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	15.00	15.00
elo	1503.30	1533.00
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.01	-6.16
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	5.60	4.20
runs for avg (last 10)	4.30	4.00