Cleveland Guardians 5–0 Arizona Diamondbacks

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 05:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Merrill Kelly (ERA 4.86, WHIP 1.45) · home: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.71, WHIP 1.07)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22 lost leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	11.84	$21.69	+36%	-2.00	lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.28	$12.80	+7%	-10.00	lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.28	$12.80	+7%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	57%	1.79
Arizona Diamondbacks win	43%	18.75

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Arizona Diamondbacks win		2.19	2.24	+2.6%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.67	1.70	+1.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Arizona Diamondbacks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cleveland Guardians	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	—	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cleveland Guardians	Arizona Diamondbacks
congestion 21d	16.00	16.00
elo	1504.11	1524.29
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.70	11.89
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	5.20	4.70
runs for avg (last 10)	3.10	6.70