Cincinnati Reds 10–2 Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 05:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Mitch Keller (ERA 4.83, WHIP 1.31) · home: Chase Burns (ERA 2.4, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22 lost leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	11.84	$21.69	+36%	-2.00	lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.34	$13.40	+11%	-10.00	lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.19	$11.87	+5%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cincinnati Reds win	57%	1.76
Pittsburgh Pirates win	43%	2.34

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		2.19	2.29	+4.6%
Cincinnati Reds win		1.76	1.67	-5.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2
Cincinnati Reds	3	1	3	2	0	0	0	1	—	10

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cincinnati Reds	Pittsburgh Pirates
congestion 21d	16.00	15.00
elo	1475.18	1499.56
elo momentum (last 5)	-0.90	-6.11
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.79	0.79
runs against avg (last 10)	4.00	4.80
runs for avg (last 10)	3.40	3.30