← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 27, 06:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: George Kirby (ERA 3.57, WHIP 1.28) · home: Kumar Rocker (ERA 4.13, WHIP 1.31)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Portfolio | $15.79 | 2.20 | $18.95 | +8% | +18.95 | won |
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 won leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.27 | $16.54 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +19% | +12.00 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +19% | +12.00 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +8% | +10.51 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 52% | 31.21 |
| Texas Rangers win | 48% | 2.20 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.76 | 1.76 | -0.2% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.90 | 2.14 | +12.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1496.33 | 1510.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.29 | -10.12 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |