← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tatsuya Imai (ERA 5.59, WHIP 1.47) · home: Walbert Ureña (ERA 2.78, WHIP 1.31)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 won leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.27 | $16.54 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.89 | $8.90 | +7% | +8.90 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 55% | 3.96 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 45% | 19.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.76 | 1.03 | -41.6% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.93 | 1.93 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1425.00 | 1497.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.15 | 9.38 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.50 |