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Chicago White Sox 5–9 New York Yankees

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 27, 11:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Max Fried (ERA 2.97, WHIP 0.96) · home: Noah Schultz (ERA 6.04, WHIP 1.46)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won
leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 won
leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost
Chaos parlay$2.009.27$16.54+30%-2.00lost
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23
MLB dog variance$10.002.23$12.30+3%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
New York Yankees win54%2.01
Chicago White Sox win46%2.24

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
New York Yankees win1.762.01+14.0%
Chicago White Sox win1.901.79-5.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
New York Yankees0004001409
Chicago White Sox3000100015

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChicago White SoxNew York Yankees
congestion 21d13.0013.00
elo1497.861551.63
elo momentum (last 5)-5.02-0.28
matches since win0.001.00
rest days1.231.01
runs against avg (last 10)3.703.60
runs for avg (last 10)5.603.10