← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 27, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Max Fried (ERA 2.97, WHIP 0.96) · home: Noah Schultz (ERA 6.04, WHIP 1.46)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 won leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.27 | $16.54 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 54% | 2.01 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 46% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.76 | 2.01 | +14.0% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.90 | 1.79 | -5.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| Chicago White Sox | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1497.86 | 1551.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.02 | -0.28 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.01 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.10 |