Miami Marlins 8–7 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 27, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Zack Wheeler (ERA 2.16, WHIP 0.88) · home: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.52, WHIP 1.39)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	Portfolio	$13.61	2.52	$20.69	+9%	+20.69	won
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	Drought fade	$10.00	2.52	$15.20	+20%	+15.20	won
leg 1: Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.89	$17.78	+32%	—	pending
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+7%	+12.36	won
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+7%	+12.36	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	60%	1.65
Miami Marlins win	40%	2.59

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.57	1.58	+0.6%
Miami Marlins win		2.14	2.45	+14.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	7
Miami Marlins	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Miami Marlins	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	13.00	13.00
elo	1480.17	1539.16
elo momentum (last 5)	-16.47	-6.47
matches since win	12.00	0.00
rest days	1.21	0.97
runs against avg (last 10)	5.20	3.70
runs for avg (last 10)	2.70	4.10