← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 27, 11:00 PM UTC · scheduled
Probable pitchers: away: Slade Cecconi (ERA 4.6, WHIP 1.45) · home: Chase Burns (ERA 2.42, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.89 | $17.78 | +32% | — | pending |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +14% | — | pending |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +14% | — | pending |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Portfolio | $7.81 | 2.29 | $10.06 | +5% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 59% | 2.73 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 41% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 2.29 | 2.34 | +2.4% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.60 | 1.65 | +3.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.